Solar Activity and Space Weather Update thread

russ_watters said:

Lol, oops. Thanks.

No, you were originally right! ... (see previous post just above ...)
["Limb(rim) - to Limb" motion/rotation takes just a bit less than 2weeks ... – and even right on the Limb, an erruption (e.g. flare) or a CME can have a Geo-effective component ... – plus see that there are other ways to expect auroras from (as said earlier above on post #277 ), that's why official & valid forecasts are important & useful ...]
@russ_watters , @Tom.G

Stavros Kiri said:

No, you were originally right! ... (see previous post just above ...)
["Limb(rim) - to Limb" motion/rotation takes just a bit less than 2weeks ... – and even right on the Limb, an erruption (e.g. flare) or a CME can have a Geo-effective component ... – plus see that there are other ways to expect auroras from (as said earlier above on post #277 ), that's why official & valid forecasts are important & useful ...]
@russ_watters , @Tom.G

No, I meant from the limb to the center (pointed at Earth), which is 1/4 of a rotation not 1/2 of a rotation. 7 days, not 14.

russ_watters said:

No, I meant from the limb to the center (pointed at Earth), which is 1/4 of a rotation not 1/2 of a rotation. 7 days, not 14.

In this case ok, but you never mentioned "center". Besides, the center is ~irrelevant. 'pointed at earth' doesn't necessarilly mean 'center' ... . "Facing Earth" (e.g. for a spot group) means being on the front side of the Sun (Limb to Limb). The reason is that you never know 'what angle' the "shots" will be fired ... (simple geometry - e.g. see "live" photos of active flares or CMEs [there are a few on this thread etc. ...] - sometimes they don't go straight, etc. ...) ... . [And] As already explained, there are many cases where you get geo-effective components and especially caused auroras ... [as well as (related to) other phenomena too], not only sunspot groups related ..., etc. (see previous posts). {["Directly facing Earth" is a more special case, of course - see right below ...]}

Of course that doesn't mean that you're not partially right (making a point - I get your point - it makes sense too - you mean "Directly Facing Earth" ...) that at the center you get higher chances ... [of 'direct hit' ... – which may not always be a good thing ... - risky too ...] [...] (if we're "lucky" in timing, of course ..., e.g. to happen to get e.g. a flare right then ...). But then again, we get auroras "~all the time" and for multiple/many reasons ... . So, if/when you go to Alaska, I hope you get that lucky too ...

Tom.G said:

Or about 1 week from when it appears on the rim.

Oh, you mean to get to 90° for 'Directly Facing Earth' ... – in that case ok. {(But see also previous posts etc. ...) [--->e.g., in any case, e.g. flares can be fired at "any angle" (simple geometry) ..., to point at/to Earth, or at least to have a "geo-effective component" ... etc. ]}

A CME is Heading for Earth - Geomagnetic Storms Possible Tomorrow:

A CME IS HEADING FOR EARTH: Yesterday, a magnetic filament on the sun erupted, hurling a CME almost directly toward Earth. Forecast models say it should arrive during the late hours of Jan. 22nd, sparking minor (G1) to moderate (G2) geomagnetic storms with auroras in northern Europe and northern-tier US states.

SOLAR RADIATION STORM: A Solar Radiation Storm is in Progress (Jan.29&30 etc.). Energetic protons from the sun are striking the top of Earth's atmosphere today following a strong solar flare during the early hours of Jan. 29th. This is called a "radiation storm," and it is currently a category S2 event. Such a storm can cause elevated levels of radiation in airplanes flying over Earth's poles and unwanted glitches in the electronics of Earth-orbiting satellites.

Latest Update (Jan 30):
"THE RADIATION STORM IS SUBSIDING: Yesterday's solar radiation storm is subsiding. It is now a minor S1-class event, which poses no threat to astronauts or air travelers. Only Earth's polar regions are feeling a lingering effect of the storm. Shortwave radio transmissions inside the Arctic and Antarctic Circles are still being absorbed. (...)

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G1): A coronal mass ejection (CME) might graze Earth this week. It left the sun yesterday following a strong solar flare (M6.8-class) from departing sunspot AR3559.


A NASA model of the CME suggests it will graze Earth during the early hours of Jan. 31st. Such an impact could spark a G1-class geomagnetic storm with auroras at high latitudes.

Note: All those speckles in the SOHO coronagraph animation, above, are solar protons striking the spacecraft's camera. This is a side-effect of yesterday's solar radiation storm. "

Important Note: (from Jan 29 spaceweather Almanac - see also this latest link [blue/bold highlight] just above ...)
" NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the M6.8-class solar flare, which started this storm:


The source of the flare was departing sunspot AR3559. Not all flares cause radiation storms, but this one did because the sunspot is unusually well connected to Earth.

That may seem counterintuitive, because the sunspot is not directly facing our planet. However, when sunspots are near the sun's western limb (as AR3559 is), they can link to Earth magnetically. Take a look at this diagram, and you'll understand why. It's called "the Parker Spiral." Protons accelerated by the flare are now following the Parker Spiral toward Earth and raining down on our atmosphere.

NOAA's GOES-18 satellite is recording the protons as they pass by en route to Earth:


The three colors represent different energy ranges. Blue and green are especially noteworthy; they trace the most energetic protons capable of penetrating the metal hulls of satellites and aircraft. A significant pulse of these "hard" protons was recorded in the hours immediately after the flare. "

(Note by the OP: )
This is just one more case (of the few) that a sunspot and/or flare [and/or coronal hole/ CME, in other cases etc.] not directly facing Earth (i.e. at low angles) can still cause significant [geoeffective] solar & storm effects/events here on Earth ... (as talked about/ mentioned previously ...).

----------------------
Today's Solar picture & Solar Wind:
" Solar wind
speed: 488.6 km/sec
density: 9.71 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1256 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C1 1128 UT Jan30
24-hr: C6 1456 UT Jan29
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1300 UT

Daily Sun: 30 Jan 24
Expand: labels | no labels | Carrington

A new sunspot is emerging at the circled location. Credit: SDO/HMI "

Well, im headed-up north now. According to SOHO there was a good CME yesterday that wasn't aimed in our direction but might make a glancing-blow on the 8th or 9th. So, fingers crossed on that. Another intense cluster of sunspots is swinging around into firing position, but will be too late unless it sends us a volley very soon. Not as promising a prediction as I'd hoped.

Agreed.
Well, you never know ... . It's all about timing. Wishing a good trip and best luck ...
Looking forward to the outcome ...

1. "GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G1): Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible on Feb. 9th when a CME is expected to pass close to Earth. The storm would require not just a near miss, but an actual glancing blow. The asymmetric shape of the CME suggests either outcome is possible, making this a coin-flip forecast. (...) "

2.
"THE MARTIAN SUNSPOT IS FACING EARTH: A sunspot so big it was seen last week as far away as Mars has now turned to face Earth. NASA's Perseverance rover photographed it from Jezero crater, and it has only grown bigger since then. Here's how AR3576 looked yesterday from Argentina:


"The view was fantastic," says Eduardo Schaberger Poupeau, who photographed the sunspot using a solar-filtered telescope in the town of Rafaela. "AR3576 appeared as a large archipelago containing a multitude of dark cores."

In fact, the sunspot is bigger than the picture suggests. There's even more of it visible in Poupeau's full frame image. From end to end, the sunspot group stretches more than 200,000 km with at least 4 dark cores larger than Earth. You can see it using ISO-approved eclipse glasses--no magnification required.

AR3576 is big, yes, but of even greater interest is the sunspot's magnetic complexity. This magnetic map from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows a mixture of polarities in the sunspot's core:



In the circled region, positive and negative magnetic polarities are so closely-packed, you may need to look at this unlabeled map to see them clearly. Opposite polarities bumping together can cause explosive magnetic reconnection. Indeed, NOAA forecasters say this sunspot poses a threat for strong X-class solar flares--and Earth is directly in the line of fire. Stay tuned."

3. Today's ["morning"] Sun & Solar Wind:
" Solar wind
speed: 463.6 km/sec
density: 0.10 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1107 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C4 0848 UT Feb08
24-hr: M1 1805 UT Feb07
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1110 UT

Daily Sun: 08 Feb 24
Expand: labels | no labels | Carrington

Sunspot AR3576 has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI "

4. The Sun & Solar Wind (& flares etc.) Now ... :
" Solar wind
speed: 474.7 km/sec
density: 0.27 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0252 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: M3 1312 UT Feb08
24-hr: M3 1312 UT Feb08
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1455 UT

Daily Sun: 08 Feb 24
Expand: labels | no labels | Carrington

Sunspot AR3576 has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI "

( Note by the OP) We notice that the Solar Wind is already increased high (in speed) and rising ...

russ_watters said:

Well, im headed-up north now. According to SOHO there was a good CME yesterday that wasn't aimed in our direction but might make a glancing-blow on the 8th or 9th. So, fingers crossed on that. Another intense cluster of sunspots is swinging around into firing position, but will be too late unless it sends us a volley very soon. Not as promising a prediction as I'd hoped.

Well, you might get lucky in timing and with that "Martian Sunspot" too ... . There was already an M3 flare on 13:12 UT just today, ~ a couple of hours ago ... (+ a C4 and M1 earlier etc. ...). –
– See previous post above too ...
(You might have chosen a good time to go up there ... –/ + usually there's always something interesting up there to see, usually ...)

" MAJOR X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: Today at 1314 UT, the sun produced one of the most powerful solar flares in years, an X3.4-class explosion from just behind the sun's southwestern limb. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:


The source of the flare appears to be departing sunspot AR3575. Because the blast site was eclipsed by the edge of the sun, the flare was probably even stronger than its X3.4 classification suggests. This was a big explosion.

Hours after the flare's peak, Earth is still feeling the effects of the blast. Solar protons energized by the flare are following curved magnetic field lines from the sunspot back to our planet. The resulting hailstorm, called a "radiation storm," is still intensifying at the time of this writing and has just reached category S2:



This plot shows what NOAA's GOES-18 satellite is seeing right now. The colored lines count the number of energetic protons streaming past the satellite en route to Earth. Green and blue are of special interest because they trace "hard protons" capable of upsetting spacecraft electronics, e.g., causing reboots of onboard computers and temporarily fogging cameras.

The explosion also hurled a bright CME into space. It will not hit Earth. Instead, a NASA model of the CME shows it is heading for Mercury, Venus and Mars. It will hit all three planets this weekend."
-----------------

"PROTONS ARE RAINING DOWN ON EARTH: An S2-class radiation storm is underway following today's strong X3.4-class solar flare, described above. Energetic solar protons raining down on Earth's upper atmosphere are causing a polar cap absorption event, interfering with the reception of shortwave radio signals at high latitudes. Click here to view a realtime blackout map."

Multiple CMEs are coming ...

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: A forecast model from NOAA shows multiple CMEs striking Earth on Feb. 13th. Their impacts could cause G2-class (Moderate) geomagnetic storms with auroras across northern-tier US States. Also, there's a slim chance they might combine to form a more potent "Cannibal CME."

1) Mon. Feb 12, 2024
"SOLAR RADIATION STORM--NOW: For the second time in less than a week, energetic solar protons are raining down on Earth's upper atmosphere. Forecasters call this a "solar radiation storm." Today's storm (near category S2) is rich in "hard protons" wiith energies greater than 50 MeV. It is causing a shortwave radio blackout inside the Arctic Circle and speckling the cameras of some Earth-orbiting satellites.



The plot above shows storm data recorded by NOAA's GOES-18 satellite in Earth orbit. Sensors on the satellite are counting energetic protons as they pass by en route to Earth. Triggered by an explosion near the sun's southwestern limb (inset), this storm could last for another 24 hours. (...)

IS A 'CANNIBAL CME' COMING? Since Feb. 7th, the sun has hurled multiple CMEs into space. A handful of them might hit Earth this week. A new NOAA forecast model shows at least three solar storm clouds approaching for strikes on Feb. 13th:


The closely-spaced arrival of these three CMEs could spark G1 (Minor) to G2-class (Moderate) geomagnetic storms with high-latitude auroras in northern Europe, Canada, and northern-tier US states from Maine to Washington.

There's a chance the CMEs will pile up to form a Cannibal CME. This happens when one fast-moving CME sweeps up slower-moving CMEs in front of it. Cannibal CMEs typically contain strong shocks and enhanced magnetic fields that do a good job sparking geomagnetic storms. If such a pile-up occurs, the combined strike could cause a G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm with auroras at mid-latitudes."

2. The Sun today/now:
"Solar wind
speed: 477.6 km/sec
density: 8.15 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1040 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: M2 2117 UT Feb12
24-hr: M6 0348 UT Feb12
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2245 UT

Daily Sun: 12 Feb 24
Expand: labels | no labels | Carrington

Sunspot AR3576 has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI"

We ended up getting a nice hour-long outburst and some clear skies at 2:30 on our second (last) night (2/9). Awesome!





And an animation (if this works...):
https://www.facebook.com/518344248/videos/pcb.10159763340009249/687967793411110

russ_watters said:

We ended up getting a nice hour-long outburst and some clear skies at 2:30 on our second (last) night (2/9). Awesome!

View attachment 340307

View attachment 340308

And an animation (if this works...):
https://www.facebook.com/518344248/videos/pcb.10159763340009249/687967793411110

Wow! I knew you'd probably get lucky ...
Friday (Feb. 9, 2024) was an interesting day (see previous posts too etc.) and it seems a good timing for you ...
Thanks for posting those. Here's also a link for that day's solar almanac:
https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=09&month=02&year=2024

A) Tue Feb 13, 2024

"THE FIRST CME HAS ARRIVED: The first of potentially several incoming CMEs hit Earth today at 0230 UT. The initial impact was so weak it was almost undetectable. Nevertheless, geomagnetic unrest is building as Earth moves deeper into the CME's wake. Another, stronger impact will be necessary to push Earth's magnetic field into a state of full-fledged storming. NOAA forecast models suggest that could happen later today. (...)

YESTERDAY'S EXPLOSIONS--ALL OF THEM: Yesterday, Feb. 12th, the sun produced 9 solar flares (one was almost an X-flare) and multiple filament eruptions. Senol Sanli of Bursa, Turkey, combined all of them into a single 24-hour image:


"This is every explosion on Feb. 12th as recorded by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory," he explains. "I made this composite view using the observatory's 304 Å images, which show plasma at a temperature of 50,000 K."

The circled explosion, with the intense central bright spot, is the source of an ongoing S1-class radiation storm. As Solar Max approaches, days like this will become more common."

B) Morning Wed, Feb 14, 2024 (~now): (increased solar wind ...)
"Solar wind
speed: 508.9 km/sec
density: 7.79 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0357 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: M1 0310 UT Feb14
24-hr: M1 0310 UT Feb14
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0400 UT

Daily Sun: 14 Feb 24
Expand: labels | no labels | Carrington

Sunspot AR3576 has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares. New sunspot AR3583 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that could produce M-class flares. Credit: SDO/HMI"

Fri, Feb. 16, 2024

" IMPULSIVE X-FLARE: Sunspot AR3576 erupted today at 0653 UT producing an brief but intense X2.5-class solar flare. The unusual brevity of the flare may be the only reason it did not cause a solar radiation storm via the Parker Spiral mechanism described below. Stay tuned for updates. (...)

THE DANGER OF SUNSPOTS THAT DON'T FACE EARTH: Big sunspot AR3576 is about to disappear over the sun's western limb. This makes it uniquely dangerous. Scroll past this farewell shot from astronomer Philippe Tosi to find out why:


Sunspots located near the sun's western limb are magnetically connected to Earth. The sun's magnetic field spirals around like a lawn sprinker--a shape known as the "Parker spiral." Look at this diagram. Lines of magnetic force coming out of the western limb curve around and touch our planet.

AR3576 is now in the "danger zone." If there is an eruption today, or in the next couple of days, debris may be funneled back to Earth by the Parker spiral. The resulting radiation storm could pepper satellites with high-energy protons, fogging cameras and causing reboots of onboard electronics. At such times, shortwave radio propagation can become difficult to impossible especially around the poles.

Hurry through the danger zone, AR3576! "

Solar Wind relatively normal today.

TWO MAJOR SOLAR FLARES: Giant sunspot AR3590 just unleashed [hours ago, compared to posting here] two major X-class solar flares. The double blast approximately coincided with a widely-reported outage of cell phone service; however, experts agree that the flares were probably not responsible. More flares are in the offing. The sunspot has an unstable 'delta-class' magnetic field, and it is turning toward Earth.

Also (since a couple of days ago):
"A SUNSPOT YOU CAN SEE USING ECLIPSE GLASSES: Got eclipse glasses? If so, put them on and look at the sun. There's no eclipse today, but there's still something to see. A giant sunspot is crossing the solar disk. AR3590 is so big you can see it without magnification."

" Daily Sun: 22 Feb 24
Expand: labels | no labels | Carrington

Big sunspot AR3590 has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI "

Stavros Kiri said:

Wow! I knew you'd probably get lucky ...
Friday (Feb. 9, 2024) was an interesting day (see previous posts too etc.) and it seems a good timing for you ...
Thanks for posting those. Here's also a link for that day's solar almanac:
https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=09&month=02&year=2024

@russ_watters , so, what was your overall assessment, regarding back then? Was it a good experience & worth it ? ...

russ_watters said:

We ended up getting a nice hour-long outburst and some clear skies at 2:30 on our second (last) night (2/9). Awesome!

View attachment 340307

View attachment 340308

And an animation (if this works...):
https://www.facebook.com/518344248/videos/pcb.10159763340009249/687967793411110

And, yes, at least for once, we got some of our people (here on PF) going up there ... – hahaha – I think it's great! Awesome! ...

A) Mon Feb. 26, 2024

"WEAK IMPACT FAILS TO CAUSE A STORM: As predicted, a CME grazed Earth's magnetic field on Feb. 25th (~1645 UT). However, the impact was weak and it did not cause a geomagnetic storm. The CME was hurled into space on Feb. 21st by an erupting filament of magnetism (movie) in the sun's northern hemisphere. (...)

BIG SUNSPOT GETS EVEN BIGGER: Giant sunspot AR3590 spent the weekend getting bigger. This two-day movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows its area increasing by a quarter in only 48 hours:


AR3590 is now the largest sunspot of Solar Cycle 25. For comparison, it is now 60% as large (by surface area) as the great sunspot that caused the Carrington Event in Sept. 1859. Even a 60%-intensity Carrington Event occuring today could cause problems for satellites, power grids, and internet connectivity. That's why forecasters are carefully watching this sunspot.

Last week, AR3590 unleashed three X-flares in rapid succession, including the strongest flare of the current solar cycle (X6.3) . Since then the sunspot has been relatively quiet, producing only a handful of low-level M-class explosions. Is it gathering itself for another X-flare? If so, the flare will be geoeffective as AR3590 is directly facing Earth."

B) (a couple of days ago)
"CELL NETWORK OUTAGE EXPLAINED: A 12-hour outage of AT&T's network on Thursday interrupted cell phone service for tens of thousands of Americans. The outage coincided with a series of X-class solar flares from giant sunspot AR3590. However, the solar flares have been exonerated. AT&T did it to themselves. "Based on our initial review, we believe the outage was caused by the application and execution of an incorrect process used as we were expanding our network", the company reported. "